By Kate Deiboldt, Sr. Mortgage Advisor | VanDyk Mortgage. NMLS 18487/NMLS 3035
If you’ve been watching the housing market over the past couple of years, you’ve probably heard two completely different stories.
One headline says:
“The housing market is flooded with inventory.”
The next says:
“There still aren’t enough homes for sale.”
So…which one is true?
Actually, both are.
One of the biggest mistakes buyers—and even some real estate professionals—make is assuming the national housing market behaves like one giant market. It doesn’t.
The real estate market has always been local. In 2026, it’s becoming even more regional.
Let’s break down what the latest housing inventory trends mean and, more importantly, what they mean if you’re buying or selling a home in Clarksville, Fort Campbell, Montgomery County, or Middle Tennessee.
National Housing Inventory Is Barely Growing
According to recent housing market data, active inventory across the United States has increased only about 1.9% year over year.
That’s a dramatic slowdown.
Just one year ago, inventory growth was nearly 29%.
In other words…
The rapid increase in available homes that many economists expected has largely stalled.
Instead of seeing inventory explode across the country, we’re seeing something much more interesting:
Some states are experiencing significant inventory growth while others remain extremely tight.
That’s why national headlines can be misleading.
Some States Have Plenty of Homes…
Builders in parts of the Pacific Northwest—particularly Washington and Oregon—have acknowledged they need to make affordability adjustments to move inventory.
Why?
Because those markets have experienced:
- Higher mortgage rates
- Slower buyer demand
- More speculative new construction
- Greater affordability challenges
When inventory builds faster than buyers can absorb it, sellers have to compete harder.
That often means:
- Price reductions
- Builder incentives
- Interest rate buydowns
- Closing cost assistance
- More negotiating power for buyers
If you’re buying in one of those markets, today’s environment may create opportunities that simply didn’t exist a year ago.
…While Other States Are Still Starved for Inventory
Meanwhile, many parts of the country continue to struggle with an entirely different problem.
There still aren’t enough homes.
These markets often experience:
- Multiple offers
- Faster sales
- Limited inventory
- Stable pricing
- Strong demand from local buyers
This is exactly why buyers shouldn’t assume that what they hear on national news applies to their local market.
What About Tennessee?
This is the question I get almost every day.
“Kate…are home prices about to crash?”
Short answer:
I don’t believe so—not here.
Our market around:
- Clarksville
- Fort Campbell
- Montgomery County
- Hopkinsville
- Nashville suburbs
continues to benefit from several long-term demand drivers.
Those include:
- Military relocation
- Job growth
- Population migration
- Affordable cost of living compared to many other states
- Continued new construction
Does that mean every neighborhood behaves the same?
Absolutely not.
Some price ranges are incredibly competitive.
Others are sitting longer.
Some sellers are pricing based on 2022 expectations instead of today’s reality.
That’s why pricing strategy matters more than ever.
The Fort Campbell Effect
One reason our market behaves differently than many others is Fort Campbell.
Every PCS season brings new military families looking for homes.
Every retirement creates another group of buyers deciding to stay in Middle Tennessee.
Unlike markets dependent on a single industry, our area benefits from a consistent flow of relocation.
That creates housing demand that remains relatively steady even when national headlines become negative.
As someone who has specialized in VA home loans for more than 26 years, I’ve watched this cycle repeat itself many times.
National headlines change.
Fort Campbell keeps moving people.
Why Inventory Matters to Buyers
More inventory gives buyers something they haven’t had in years:
Options.
When inventory increases, buyers can often:
- Compare more homes
- Negotiate repairs
- Ask for seller-paid closing costs
- Take a little more time making decisions
- Avoid bidding wars
That’s a healthier housing market.
Not because prices collapse…
But because buyers regain balance.
Why Inventory Matters to Sellers
If you’re selling, increased inventory doesn’t necessarily mean bad news.
It simply means you have more competition.
That means your home needs:
- Accurate pricing
- Professional marketing
- Excellent photography
- Strong Realtor representation
- A financing partner who can get buyers to the closing table
Homes that are priced correctly continue to sell.
Homes chasing yesterday’s prices often sit.
Mortgage Rates Still Matter
Inventory is only one piece of the affordability puzzle.
Mortgage rates remain another major factor.
A small change in interest rates can significantly impact monthly payments, sometimes more than a modest change in purchase price.
That’s why I encourage buyers to focus less on headlines and more on monthly affordability.
Sometimes a seller concession or temporary interest rate buydown creates a much larger financial benefit than negotiating another few thousand dollars off the purchase price.
There are often multiple ways to structure a winning offer.
Every Market Has Micro-Markets
One of my favorite sayings is:
Real estate isn’t one market. It’s thousands of neighborhoods pretending to be one market.
For example:
A $250,000 starter home in Clarksville may receive multiple offers.
Meanwhile…
A luxury home priced over $900,000 could sit for months.
Those are completely different markets despite being only a few miles apart.
Price point matters.
Neighborhood matters.
School zones matter.
Condition matters.
Marketing matters.
That’s why broad national statistics only tell part of the story.
What First-Time Homebuyers Should Know
If you’ve been waiting because you’re expecting prices to crash…
Be careful.
Waiting can sometimes cost more than buying.
No one—not economists, lenders, or Realtors—can consistently predict the perfect time to purchase a home.
What you can control is whether you’re financially prepared.
That’s why I tell my clients:
Think of me like Google Maps for mortgages.
You tell me where you want to go.
I’ll show you the best route to get there.
Sometimes that means buying today.
Sometimes it means creating a six-month plan.
Sometimes it means improving credit or saving a little more for closing costs.
The important thing is knowing your options before making a decision.
My Advice After 26 Years in Mortgage Lending
I’ve helped thousands of families purchase homes through:
- Record-low interest rates
- Double-digit interest rates
- Housing booms
- Housing recessions
- COVID
- Military relocations
- Market corrections
One lesson has remained constant:
The buyers who succeed are the ones who make decisions based on their personal finances—not scary headlines.
The media gets paid for clicks.
You deserve guidance that’s specific to your situation.
Bottom Line
The 2026 housing market isn’t crashing.
It isn’t booming everywhere either.
Instead, we’re seeing a market that’s becoming increasingly local.
Some states are experiencing rising inventory and greater buyer leverage.
Others continue to face limited housing supply.
Here in the Clarksville and Fort Campbell area, demand remains supported by military relocation, job growth, and population migration. That means buyers and sellers need strategies tailored to our local market—not generic national advice.
Whether you’re a first-time buyer, relocating to Fort Campbell, using a VA loan, or wondering if now is the right time to buy, the best first step isn’t guessing.
It’s getting a plan.
As I always tell my clients:
Knowledge is power.
If you’d like to see what you qualify for—or simply understand your options with no pressure and no hard credit inquiry for an initial prequalification—I’d be happy to help.
Kate Deiboldt
Sr. Mortgage Advisor | VanDyk Mortgage | NMLS #18487
📞 (931) 980-9764
🌐 www.justcallkate.info
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